Valentia Observatory Records Record Rainfall

On October 4th, Valentia Observatory recorded it's highest level of rainfall in a single day since the station opened 150 years ago. There was 105.5mm of rain in 24 hours. The same station also recorded it's wettest September in 10 years and December 2015 was the wettest December on record.  However, May 2016 was a remarkably dry month, well below average.

  
To get the bigger picture to see what is going on, I've taken a look at mean air temperature records. 

Previous very wet years were 1924, 1930, 1946, 1947, 2002, 2008 and 2009. Is there a trend of floods and heavy rainfall occurring directly after years of warming ?

The past five years were cooler than the warming peak of the 2000's. We will have to see how 2016 plays out. So far, 2016 is over half a degree warmer than 2015 (up to September). This makes 2016 warmer than any of the last five years but still cooler than the 2000s. 

The sea surface temperature maps still show a large body of cool water out in the Atlantic :

Compare with 2006 and 2007 :

A colder Atlantic would normally mean a colder winter in Ireland. 

Curtailment Payments to Wind Farms will Increase Over Winter

From Irish Independent

The compensation will be based on the market price per megawatt of power produced, which is currently at around €50. If an operator could not transmit 100MW, they would be entitled to €5,000. "There is no doubt that at some stage over the coming months we will have to curtail," a source said.

The unavailability of the East West interconnector also means that Eirgrid will have to revise their Winter Outlook :

The capacity margin of 3199 shows how much spare capacity we have over and above demand. This can now be reduced to 2699 with the loss of the interconnector. The Danes generally assume that wind has a capacity credit of zero whereas Eirgrid assume a 14% figure for Irish wind. If we get a prolonged period of High Pressure, then the output of wind will be close to zero and will contribute nothing to adequate capacity. So that leaves a capacity margin of 2,266 MW. If the winter takes a sudden cold turn, then that will put added pressure on this margin as demand rises. 

Wind Energy Provides Just 3.5% of Electricity on Coldest Day of the Winter

• The National Smart Metering Programme aims to fundamentally transform the range of consumer services, technologies and options on offer, with more sophisticated services for consumers who choose dynamic tariffs along with smart home technologies. For example, at times of very high wind generation, domestic hot water or heating systems will be incentivised to switch on and then turn down when wind generation drops - White Paper on Energy

According to Met Eireann, February 24th was the coldest day of the 2015/16 winter :

Demand for electricity was at its highest as people came in from work at 6pm :

Wind energy was providing just 3.5% of peak demand (209MW / 5,891MW). 

Smart Meters will soon be switching off hot water and heating in your home on very cold days like this one. Voters in their thousands are voting for their own funeral. The Irish media glorify the green cause. The future is cold and bleak and "green".

John Gibbons - Are winters getting colder or warmer ?

John Gibbons, the climate alarmist at An Taisce seems to be confused as to whether Climate Change is causing winters in Ireland to get warmer or cooler.

Compare these two statements made on his blog, one from 2010 and the other from 2015:

2010 Quote - John Gibbons :

“First, the good news: despite concerns, the Gulf Stream, the powerful current that transfers vast amounts of heat from the equator to north-western Europe, does not appear to be faltering. Were it to stop entirely, average winter temperatures in Ireland would plummet by 5 degrees C, meaning the current freeze would be a regular fixture for several months every year.These anomalies could triple the probability of cold winter extremes in Europe and northern Asia,” according to Vladimir Petoukhov, lead author of the study. “Recent severe winters like last year’s or the one of 2005-06 do not conflict with the global warming picture, but rather supplement it.”

2015 Quote - John Gibbons :

"I invite you to read this sub-section in full. It confirms that Ireland’s average air temperature has risen by 0.8C in the last century, and that this has already impacted, for instance, the growing season. By mid-century, is says, all seasons are likely to be 1-1.5 warmer, but it’s not all doom and gloom by any means: “Milder winters will lead to a reduction in winter mortality due to fewer cold spells but the increasing likelihood of heatwaves and hot days (days over 30 °C) may have the opposite effect in summer.”

So there you have it - we are going to have severely cold and milder winters at the same time. 

While Gibbons is perfectly entitled to believe in whatever he likes, the worrying thing is that the building of more wind farms and Climate Bills which drive up carbon taxes are both justified by this contradictory "science".

And the Irish media, like in the days of the Celtic Tiger, are driving the bandwagons off the cliff.

Climate Change Update : Winters in Ireland 2009-2015

Irish climate scientists predicted the following changes to Ireland's winter climate due to carbon dioxide :

• Global warming, driven primarily by emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere, willcontinue;
• Temperatures on land by 2055 will show increases up to 1.5°C in winter and 2.0°C in summer
• A change in average rainfall by 2055 of +10% in winter and -10% to -40% in summer (greatestdecrease in the south-east);
• Around the coasts, wetter winters leading to periodic flash floods, increased storm intensity andwave height combined with rising sea levels will accelerate erosion of soft shores and increase theincidence of flooding in low-lying areas.

 - Marine Institute, Galway, 2005

• Using an approach based on General Linear Modelling, winter rainfall in Ireland by the 2050s is projected to increase by approximately 10% 
• The main challenges for Irish agriculture will come from wetter winter and drier summer soils. 

 - Climate Change, Refining The Impacts, NUI Mayooth, 2008

We are often reminded when new evidence fits with climate change predictions but there is always a deafening silence when new evidence does not fit with the climate models. We never hear when this happens.

So how have the winters been in Ireland over the past few years ? According to Irish climatologists we should see a trend towards warmer and wetter winters. Met Eireann kindly provides us with winter reports so we can see for ourselves :

•  2009 Winter : Coldest Winter for between 8 and 18 years; dry and sunny. Mean air temperatures for the season were a little below normal for the 1961-90 period; the winter was unusual when compared with recent years for the persistence of cold weather at times.

Seasonal rainfall totals were below normal everywhere.

•  2010 Winter : Coldest Winter for between 13 and 18 years in places. Mean air temperatures were around two degrees lower than average for the 1961-90 period and it was the coldest winter since 1962/3 everywhere.

Rainfall totals were below normal almost everywhere

• 2011 Winter : Mean air temperatures were well below normal everywhere, by between one and two degrees generally. December was one of the coldest months on record in Ireland, while cold spells also dominated January.

Rainfall totals were below normal everywhere and were well below normal in the south.


•  2012 Winter : Mean air temperatures were above average

Rainfall totals were below normal for Winter in the Midlands, South and East, with above average rainfalls along the Northwest and West coasts.

•  2013 Winter : The majority of mean air temperatures were below their Long-Term Average (LTA) with on or above LTA values recorded in parts of the western half of the country.

Most stations reported above LTA rainfall with the exception of a few stations mainly in the West,
Southwest, Midlands and East which reported below LTA values

• 2014 Winter : Nearly all mean temperatures were near or above their LTA for winter

Almost all seasonal winter rainfall totals were above average with most stations reporting above Long-Term Average (LTA) rainfall during the three months of winter

• 2015 Winter : Winter mean temperatures below average nearly everywhere. The lowest winter
minimum was -7.9°C at Dublin Airport on Feb 3rd, its lowest recorded during February since 1956.

Percentage of Long-Term Average (LTA) winter rainfall values were variable, with mainly below average values in the East, Southeast, South and in isolated parts of the Midlands.

So what is the trend ?

In five of the past seven winters, temperatures were below average.

In three of the past seven winters, rainfall was below average with variable rainfall patterns in two winters (2012 and 2015).  This means that only two winters - 2013 and 2014 - had above average rainfall at the majority of stations. Of the variable years, 2012 and 2015, the East, South and parts of the Midlands reported less than average rainfall.

So there certainly is not a trend towards a warmer and wetter winter. If anything, the trend is towards colder and drier / mixed rainfall winters.

This shows that the computer models used by climatologists are unable to accurately represent our climate and take account of the many variables which influence it. They certainly should not be used as a basis for climate policy.