Is Something Happening to the Seas Around Ireland ?

Post by Owen Martin

Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) have lately been showing a large cold blob around Ireland and Western Europe. The SST Anomaly shows how colder or warmer a sea region is from the long term average. Right now it's colder than average for this time of the year.





If we look at previous SST maps, we can see that for every year in the recent past, the SST was warmer than average around Ireland at this time of year. Not since the year 2000 (last on below graphs), has there been anything even remotely comparable although the current "blob" dwarfs that one.

Sunfish in Ireland : Evidence Of Climate Change ?

Climate change is a cultural phenomenon which whips all types of people into an hysteria. Single generational anecdotes are taken as yet more signs of ominous changes in the climate - "I've lived here for 30/40/50/60 years and never seen anything like it" type stories relate to such a small timescale that they can give but little or no insight into long term fluctuations in our climate. Then, there is also the problem of eyewitness testimony which often cannot be relied on for recent events, let alone events of 40 or 50 years ago. The most famous example of this is the Selective Attention Test. But these stories sell papers and most scientists are eager to endorse them.

The National Geographic describe sunfish or mola as :

Mola are found in temperate and tropical oceans around the world. They are frequently seen basking in the sun near the surface and are often mistaken for sharks when their huge dorsal fins emerge above the water. Their teeth are fused into a beak-like structure, and they are unable to fully close their relatively small mouths.

According to the Irish Examiner, "Ocean sunfish are uncommon but certainly not unknown in our waters, where the winter average is 10C on the south coast, and 7C on the north. However, it may be 16C along southwest coasts in August. Some scientists hold that warming seas seduce them north from tropical waters". 

Every few years, an anecdote about sightings of sunfish and the connection with climate change pops up in the Irish media :

‘Irish Times’ anglers gain rare sighting of a school of sunfish (2014) In 40 years fishing in the waters off Cobh, Co Cork, local skipper Donal Geary has never witnessed  such a spectacle as 5 sunfish swimming within six metres of his boat. CLIMATE change was much in evidence last weekend as five sunfish (yes five) came within six metres  of our boat while fishing out from Cobh in Co Cork. Donal Geary, skipper of John Boy, said:  “In all of my 40 years of fishing these waters I have never seen such a spectacle.”

In 2007, sunfish were been tagged around Ireland and were thought to "represent a good biological indicator of climate change" :

"This research has very important implications for Ireland as a whole as sunfish may represent a good biological indicator of climatic change; that is, if sunfish sightings increase dramatically it may be a clear sign that our waters are warming and our climate is changing," said Dr Doyle.

And again from 2014, Michael Viney attributes "a recent surge in sightings" to climate change  :

Another Life: Searching for sunfish where jellyfish gather Climate change and the drift of jellyfish may explain a recent surge in sightings of nature’s biggest bony fish

We can see from Valentia, one of the most reliable temperature records in Ireland and Europe, that there was an increase in temperatures since the late 1980s. But there was also a similar warming during the 1890s : 

The following newspaper article comes from 1899 and describes "strange visitors" to the shores of Ireland due to the hot weather :

In 1898, plans were underway to widen the Grand Canal to allow steamers export Irish food and produce to Dublin and England in faster time.  The Seas around Ireland were described as teeming with fish at the time - mackerel and herring would not come as a surprise - but the papers at the time also include references to the Western coast teeming with our tropical friend - the sunfish :

The late 1940s was also a warm period. Again we get references from that time to the proliferation of sunfish on the western coast of Ireland  :

The truth is that sunfish have been common in the waters around the West Coast of Ireland for at least the last 100 years and most likely much longer than that. The West Coast of Ireland benefits enormously from the North Atlantic Drift which brings warm currents from the Gulf Stream. It is this current which brings the sunfish to our waters, not climate change. 

Climate alarmists have long warned that climate change will turn off this current due to more rainfall and Arctic ice melting. Thus, climate change should lead to colder, pre North Atlantic Drift, Irish seas. Therefore, if climate change is actually occurring, the numbers of sunfish along the Irish Coast should be decreasing, not increasing.

Once again, climate alarmists want to have their cake and eat it. Anything goes when under the banner of climate change - warmer, colder, rising, falling, increases, decreases etc. If Arctic Ice is melting, then surely Irish seas should be getting colder ? The proliferation of sunfish along the coasts of Ireland is due to natural processes and variations. Should we see them disappearing, then we might get worried.

A Trillion Here, A Trillion There

Ireland has a lot of problems at the moment, none more urgent than the homelessness, hospital and police crises. While the government will claim that lack of resources is the root cause of these problems, will they have a problem in finding money when it comes to the Green cause which has taken root in Europe and America ?

This article from Standpoint Magazine explains the amounts involved :

Between now and 2020, the Green Climate Fund is supposed to transfer at least $100 billion a year in support of developing nations’ decarbonisation efforts. Before COP21 opened, the GCF had received pledges of $70 million (0.07 per cent of the total). Undaunted, Christiana Figueres, the Costa Rican Marxist academic who is nominally in charge of COP21, now suggests that the developed world should transfer $1 trillion a year. To adapt the late Senator Everett Dirksen: “A trillion here, a trillion there, pretty soon you’re talking real money.”

Funny enough, I don't remember voting on this.

Unfortunately, I cant find it online, but there was a nice graph produced by RTE from their Election 2016 exit poll. It showed a list of issues which concerned voters but the issue of climate change was nowhere to be seen on that list.

While it is true that Ireland has pledged very little so far (about € 2 million and another € 34m in climate related foreign aid), pressure is now on the government to ramp up its "climate finance":

We propose the establishment of a Climate Justice Fund which would be financed from relevant revenue streams such as the Carbon Tax and from ETS auctioning and use this money to meet Ireland’s international climate finance obligations. The establishment of a Climate Justice Fund would serve to ensure Ireland meets its fair share of obligations to provide climate finance without diverting funds from Overseas Development Aid (ODA). It would also allow Ireland to continue to set an example by prioritising adaptation in its climate finance contributions.

Ireland pledged € 175million at the COP21 agreement for 2016-2020. Most likely the carbon tax will be hiked upwards by the new government to pay for it. So poor people in Ireland, who will be pushed further into fuel poverty, will be sending money over to poor people elsewhere, if it ever reaches them.

Climate economics just doesn't add up. 

2015 was Ireland's coldest year since 2010

Met Eireann have revealed that 2015 was not the hottest year on record for Ireland but actually the coldest since 2010 :

 A few other stations, mainly located in the Midlands and West, reported their lowest annual mean temperatures since 2010 - Met Eireann

As you can see, all stations bar one showed lower temperatures than the Long Term Average (LTA) :

Whale strandings not a new phenomonen

There's a strong tendency for people to believe they live in unique or extreme times but whales have always been found stranded along the coast of UK and Ireland :

Article from 1903

January 1985, 30 years ago, was as bad or even worse for whale strandings than January this year :

January 1985

Before fossil fuels, whales were hunted to near extinction, due to the demand for their oil. Fossil fuels helped save the whale. 

Article from 1879

John Gibbons - Are winters getting colder or warmer ?

John Gibbons, the climate alarmist at An Taisce seems to be confused as to whether Climate Change is causing winters in Ireland to get warmer or cooler.

Compare these two statements made on his blog, one from 2010 and the other from 2015:

2010 Quote - John Gibbons :

“First, the good news: despite concerns, the Gulf Stream, the powerful current that transfers vast amounts of heat from the equator to north-western Europe, does not appear to be faltering. Were it to stop entirely, average winter temperatures in Ireland would plummet by 5 degrees C, meaning the current freeze would be a regular fixture for several months every year.These anomalies could triple the probability of cold winter extremes in Europe and northern Asia,” according to Vladimir Petoukhov, lead author of the study. “Recent severe winters like last year’s or the one of 2005-06 do not conflict with the global warming picture, but rather supplement it.”

2015 Quote - John Gibbons :

"I invite you to read this sub-section in full. It confirms that Ireland’s average air temperature has risen by 0.8C in the last century, and that this has already impacted, for instance, the growing season. By mid-century, is says, all seasons are likely to be 1-1.5 warmer, but it’s not all doom and gloom by any means: “Milder winters will lead to a reduction in winter mortality due to fewer cold spells but the increasing likelihood of heatwaves and hot days (days over 30 °C) may have the opposite effect in summer.”

So there you have it - we are going to have severely cold and milder winters at the same time. 

While Gibbons is perfectly entitled to believe in whatever he likes, the worrying thing is that the building of more wind farms and Climate Bills which drive up carbon taxes are both justified by this contradictory "science".

And the Irish media, like in the days of the Celtic Tiger, are driving the bandwagons off the cliff.

Recent Floods and Climate Change - Time to Break the Link

This is not to single out Ms Donnelly. Dr Gerard Fleming, its head of forecasting and forecaster Evelyn Cusack have both been at pains in their recent public utterances on the almost unprecedented series of December flooding events to ensure no one could form the impression this latest freak weather is part of any larger pattern, or, heaven forbid, be actually be precisely what we can expect from climate change - Think or Swim Blog.

The above blog is quite clear - climate change is causing the recent floods in Ireland. What it doesn't tell you is that natural variability plays a significant part in events like these. The recent floods are happening because of the El Nino in the Pacific Ocean and changes in the Jetstream. When climate events occur that refuse to comply with Memo's issued by Climate Alarmists, we are told that these particular events are in fact due to natural variations :

But natural climate variability means there are plenty of local or temporary events – such as cold winters – that appear to contradict the warming trend. Some years see smaller pressure differences than normal – a condition scientists call the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This causes the jet stream to weaken and to shift south to the Mediterranean, cutting off our supply of mild, Atlantic air and allowing more frequent incursions of cold air from continental Europe and Russia.

Scientists are still investigating what causes the negative NAO that brings us cold winter weather. Studies show an influence on the NAO from El Niño and La Niña – the spreading of warmer- or cooler-than-normal waters across the equatorial Pacific that is known to influence global climate patterns. There's also evidence that low phases of the sun's 11-year activity cycle might influence the NAO and thus bring cold winters to Britain - The Guardian, December 2011.  

So Natural Variability is responsible for cold dry weather, but Climate Change is responsible for warm wet weather. Alarmists want to have their cake and eat it.  Anyone keeping an eye on the jetstream can tell you that the recent mild December was 100% due to changes in the jetstream that brought warm air from the Equator to Ireland. This is in stark contrast to the past few winters when the jetstream was bringing cold Arctic air. 

Jetstream brought warm air from the Equator in December 2015

December 2014 - the jetstream was bringing cold Arctic air to Ireland

The floods in the Shannon and elsewhere have occurred in the recent past, namely - 1923, 1924, 1928, 1929, 1930, 1938, 1946, 1947, 1949 and 1950. Therefore, serious flooding in Ireland was a one-in-three-year-event from 1920 to 1950. 

Its guidance on the IPCC science on emissions and, in particular, the need for ‘Early action…to reduce the chances of dangerous climate change’ is clear and leaves little room for the peddling of dangerous nonsense which, regrettably, still passes for discourse on climate change in parts of our media, most notably RTE’s flagship current affairs programme, ‘PrimeTime’. Its show, broadcast on December 3rd last, under the title ‘The cost of climate change’ featured a studio ‘debate’ so badly skewed and so blatantly misleading that, were it about almost any other subject than climate change, the editor of PrimeTime would by now be busy updating his CV for the 2016 jobs market - Think or Swim Blog.

However, this is what the IPCC actually has to say about flooding :

In summary, there continues to be a lack of evidence and thus low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale - IPCC, 2013, p.112.  

So Met Eireann are quite correct not to attribute the recent floods and wet weather to the bogeyman of "climate change". If climate change is occurring it will be a slow gradual process over many decades, with very slight gradual changes in temperature and weather. The problem for this theory is that there is not, as any scientist will tell you, a linear link between CO2 emissions and temperature increases. Instead, it is a logarithmic relationship, meaning that most of the warming due to CO2 emissions had already occurred before man discovered how to use fossil fuels.

And what is the trend for winter weather in recent times ?  An analysis done in a previous Irish Energy Blog article shows that in five of the past seven winters (from 2009 to 2015), temperatures were below the long term average and the climate was drier than average.

Unfortunately, those who shout the loudest get heard more than those who use cool and calm scientific analysis (See for example RTE Prime Time programme on December 3rd featuring Ray Bates and Prime Time debate from 2007 featuring Morgan Kelly on the banking situation). So we will probably see more and more of the Irish media and institutions bending to pressure from the hysterical doomsdayers. 

River Shannon Floods 1920 to 1950 - A Timeline

When more than 100 homes flooded in Athlone in 2009, homeowners were told that it was a once-in-100-years event. Six years later a similar event has unfolded - Irish Times, 12th December, 2015.

1930 Newspaper Headline (Irish Times)

I have researched newspaper archives and other reliable archive sources to verify the accuracy of the above quote. Are storms and floods like we are getting now "one-in-a-hundred-events"?. From the research I have done, I think that most Irish people who lived through the 1920s, 30s and 40s would balk at such a suggestion, especially those who lived around the Shannon Basin. Between 1920 and 1930, there were five exceptionally wet years - a-five-in-an-eleven-year-event - almost a one-in-two-year-event. Rain - Rain -  and more Rain was the constant weather pattern for this period, putting serious pressure on food and heat sources and putting the country on the brink of famine on a number of occasions for the first time since the 1840s.

By all accounts, we have been very lucky in the 21st Century. 

1923 - Heavy rains in October left thousands of acres of farmland around the basin of the Shannon waterlogged. Many crops were destroyed or unable to be harvested. Bogs were inaccessible meaning that turf could not be drawn away.

1924 - One of the worst flooding events in the Shannon region occurred in August after it rained continuously for 4 days.  It was reported that it was the worst flood in the Shannon region for forty years. The river burst its banks for many miles and large quantities of hay floated away. Potatoes turned black, corn was destroyed and turf unattainable. In the worst areas, there was talk of famine. The heavy rains affected other areas of the country aswell from Donegal to Dublin, completely destroying any hopes for a good harvest season in most places around the country.

By November of the same year, farmers threatened the Government with a "No Rent Campaign" if they did not maintain the Shannon at a "proper level". At the same time, it was agreed by all that it was an abnormally wet year.

1925 - Building of Ardnacrusha Hydro Dam begins. Locals at Lough Derg form a committee to oversea it's effect on river levels during and after construction.

1926 - In February, after four days of rain, the Shannon begins to flood again leaving "a great number of farm hands idle".

1927 - In July and August, some parts of Leitrim suffered severe flooding destroying three bridges and damaging many more. On the evening of October 28th, a major storm off the West coast of Ireland claimed the lives of 45 fishermen at sea.

1928 - In March, heavy flooding was reported around the Pullagh area with the local priest travelling one and half mile to church by boat.

However, things got much worse in November with the Shannon region suffering its worst floods since 1924. An experienced boatman drowns in the floods while rowing a boat from Shannonbridge to his home in Clonfert. People had to temporarily move out of their homes in Banagher. Railways, roads and large areas of crops were submerged.

The ESB dam at Parteen flooded and the water level at Killaloe was 10 feet higher than anytime in the previous 10 years. All low lying areas between Clonlara and Mountshannon were completely flooded leaving potatoes crops and hay destroyed.

Heavy rain and snow swept the country once again after Christmas bringing more floods and people had to move out once again.

There were also reports of dykes bursting in Belgium and Holland and the army being called in to assist with flood damage.

1929 - This year began with a drought after the much heavier than normal rains of the previous year. In April, it was reported that salmon were scarce and that fishing was at a "standstill". However, by September, the Shannon rose six feet over it's summer level. At Tarmonbarry, the country is described as like an "island sea". Athlone's athletic grounds are under three feet of water and Shannonbridge's famous potato crop is destroyed. Farmers around Carrick on Shannon and Roscommon area are the worst affected, with rainfall so heavy that many farmers find themselves in a serious situation.

1930 - After 1930, the idea of an "abnormally wet year" becomes a thing of the past as periods of very heavy rainstorms becomes the climate norm around the Shannon and elsewhere. There is no talk of "climate change". In January, people are once again leaving their homes around the Shannon. In Cork, the River Feale suffers it's worst flooding for 50 years due to a mixture of melting snow and heavy rainstorms, causing considerable destruction to property. The flooding gets so bad that the river changes course at one point, leaving an island two acres in extent, and destroying one of the best salmon pools. An electric pole only just erected some 15 feet from the bank was dislodged by the floods as it ate it's way under it.

The flooding eventually gets so bad around the Rivers Suck and Shannon that houses not flooded since 1924 are inundated with flood water of depths of up to twelve inches high. It is reported that houses "miles away" from the river Shannon are flooded and "rendered uninhabitable". The floods remain at an abnormal level for at least two months. The water rose so fast over a period of two days in January, that families who had moved back in to their homes had to move out once again after these two days. In Killaloe, water reaches the bedside of a sick man who had to be evacuated to safety.

Elsewhere, large areas of land in Offaly become so saturated that no winter ploughing can be done and there is much crop devastation around the River Barrow where it rises three feet above normal levels. Much of the sugar beat crop is lost around Leighlin Bridge and Borris, where weather is described as the "worst for many years". Wide areas are also flooded in North Galway.


After this 1932 had some flooding in areas while 1934 had very low levels of rainfall, the lowest since 1887.  Winter 1936 sees the return of widespread flooding around the Shannon Region while the floods during the winter of 1938 are regarded as the worst since 1924 with floods lasting for over 2 months.

1938 - The year begins with heavy flooding in February and March but by December 1938, the Shannon is at it's highest level since the ESB hydro generation scheme was built. Postmen deliver letters by boat, schoolchildren also travel by boat, food becomes scarce and cowsheds are raised using peat and plants. Like in 2015, many families are left stranded over Christmas. Many farmers are forced to sell their stock for "want of hay". It was reported that over one day, on the 2nd December between 9am and 1pm, 150 tonnes of water fell per acre- "Not within the memory of any old people was such a deluge experienced".

After this, 1942 and 1944 were reported as above average wet years.

1946 - The worst August weather "for a generation". Heavy rainstorms during August force the Government of the day to issue an appeal in September to save the harvest and there are calls for the army to brought in to help. Many crops, including potatoes, had to be imported from Canada and elsewhere as a result of the flood devastation.

Photo of floods in October two month after the initial storms in August (1946)

Things got so bad that the Bishop of Galway ordered that prayers be said for fine weather at all masses in his dioceses on Sundays. Dublin has its heaviest rainfall since 1932.

1947 - Very heavy snowfalls from late January till mid- March, the most persistent cold spell of the century. Five feet depth of snow in some places in the North. On top of this comes heavy rainstorms. The Shannon floods once again but also the River Erne and River Boyne in Co.Meath.

Flooded lands in Co. Meath where "flood waters stretch as far as the eye can see" (1947)

It's reported that it's "the worst outlook for farmers yet". Tractors are equipped with lights for the first time to allow them to operate during the night to save crops. 

 In April, farmers take the ESB to the High Court accusing them of contributing to the "annual flood damage". I would like to find out more about the results of the case but from what I can make out the case was rejected.

1948 - Widespread flooding during January including Cork, Tipperary, Carlow and Meath. However, this time there was not much damage done to crops. Banagher suffers from flooding later on in December.

1949 - Heavy thunderstorms in August followed a day of "oppressive heat" resulting in flooding of houses up to a depth of three feet. "Violent thunderstorms" hit the country later in October, with Dublin the worst hit. The record breaking rainfall for October in 1949 was broken in 2011 by around 2mm.

1950 - Terrential rain in February causes flooding in the Shannon. Wet weather ruins summer in July and the rain continues for ten weeks well into September. A strong storm in September blows down trees and telephone and ESB poles. A very wet year by any standards.

Shannon Floods - Climate or Contour ?

Guest Post by David Whitehead. BA(Mod. Nat.Sc.)TCD, FIMMM, C.Eng.

"The fact that it has manifested in different locations and it's now moving into the Midlands and it's an evolving situation over a number of days... it may well be associated with climate change - Irish Independent, 9th Dec 15.

Has climate change played a role? Although it can’t be said with certainty that the latest flooding was caused by climate change, scientists have for years been predicting increasingly frequent extreme weather. When more than 100 homes flooded in Athlone in 2009, homeowners were told that it was a once-in-100-years event. Six years later a similar event has unfolded. Locals say that the River Shannon was at a record low for October in Athlone just two months ago - Irish Times, 12th December, 2015.

There are several things that need to be borne in mind when listening to the rhetoric about the causes of Flooding in the Shannon basin- which includes about 20%  of the country.

The first is to remember that much of the Basin lies in the western half of the country which receives a much higher annual rainfall than the east and, not surprisingly, has a higher frequency of high and extreme rainfall events.

The second is to be aware that the altitude  at Lough Allen hydro dam sill is 50m above sea level, where it has been artificially held by the ESB  about 5m higher than its natural outlet  level as a holding pond to control the level at Ardnacrusha Hydro power station. The river falls to 45m above sea level at Leitrim and then only another 12m to Killaloe in Co.Clare. Thus the gradient is 17m in 170 km or 10cm per 1km. This slight gradient has to carry the waters of all the river basin to O’Briensbridge   in Co. Limerick .  Only  five shallow locks are required in all this distance to allow navigation for the full 170 km.

From Castleconnell (in North Limerick) to Limerick the fall is  33 m and it is this fall that provides the head for the Ardnacrusha  hydro scheme. More important is the fact that during the last glacial period the natural course of the Shannon was diverted south eastwards  (by an ice dam ) from its natural course from O’Briensbridge to Parteen (in Co.Clare) – which is more or less followed by the Ardnacrusha head race- to its present course where it cut down through and  crosses a ridge  at Castleconnnell. At this point the river bed is at 25m above sea level while the surrounding land rises to 35 on the east side and 65m on the west side of the present river channel. This constriction as well as those further upstream at Shannonbridge and Clonmacnoise, where esker ridges transect the river's course, together with the low- lying shores of the river and the very slight gradient mean it is not possible for the river to carry away even a normal level of winter rainfall – so it expands onto the surrounding callows which flood most years.

When there has been a prolonged period of rainfall and the major lakes are at their highstand and the callows are flooded and the ground is saturated, a heavy rainfall event will inevitably result in extensive flooding of the river banks.

Add to this the urban riparian developments at e.g. Athlone and the extensive covering of previous drainage catchments with tarmac  by Supermarkets, car parks  industrial estate and and domestic residential estates which carry water very swiftly to the river – much more so than agricultural land does and the scene is set for the sort of thing that happened in recent weeks.

I am sure most Irish readers all learned at primary school that the Shannon basin is  a saucer shaped depression – which is a roughly accurate description  and explains why the old cry of “dredge  the Shannon” is not a workable solution unless the gorge at Castleconnell is blasted out to form a much wider and deeper channel  extending all the way to Parteen – a huge, disuptive and very expensive civil engineering work - it will remain saucer shaped and there will be floods at frequent intervals.

Building windmills to generate electricity and punitively bringing the climate under human control by reducing CO2 emissions  will not change these unpalatable realities!

If you really fear climate change, then you should be very worried

Reality is that which when you stop believing in it, it doesn't go away - Philip K Dick. 

Reality is divinely indifferent - Richard Bach

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from each sector in 2013 (Source:EPA)

Our government is fully committed to both wind farms and fighting climate change but a simple analysis of the figures shows that they have no hope of combating it without doing something major about agriculture emissions, converting most of our power stations to biomass and introducing legislation that will alter our fast moving modern society altogether. Green lobby groups are rightly angry because they see the writing on the wall - no amount of wind farms can ever stave off the alleged dangers of climate change. If you are a believer in man made climate change, then you need to change your government and do it urgently.

The Irish government officially accept that climate change is a serious threat to Ireland and that we need to reduce our emissions to stop it's effects. The action they are taking in response is to enact a Climate Bill which is pretty much toothless, setting up a panel of experts and forcing ministers to give speeches on progress (or lack of) - in otherwords, it encourages talking shops rather than action. The other action they are fully committed to is installing wind turbines up and down the country. Apart from this there is occasional lip service to energy efficiency and the possibility of giving more subsidies to non dispatchable plant such as wave or solar. But energy efficiency initiatives dont sound all that "sexy" and politicians always prefer building things rather than conserving.

I have no doubt that the development and advancement of onshore wind energy projects will be and must be a significant element of Ireland's energy policy and its approach to combating climate change in the years ahead - Minister for Energy, Alex White, December 2015.

The Irish Greens are pretty extreme in their belief in climate change. There is the very vocal Friends of the Earth, the RTE television star Eamon Ryan, leader of the Green Party and many others who seem to be in well paid jobs and are fully committed to fighting climate change. One wonders what will happen them if we experience global cooling in the next few decades. One thing they are united in is their vocal criticism of the government. Are they right ? Well, given that they believe in climate change, then they are right to be angry. Because building more wind farms wont have any effect.

The Electricity Sector

Emissions from electricity make up about 20% of Ireland's total emissions. EPA state that :

Emissions from Energy (principally electricity generation) decreased by 11.1% (1.42 Mt CO2eq) in 2013. This reflects decreases in coal and peat used in conventional fossil fuel fired power stations for electricity generation, by 16.4% and 9.5% respectively, and also a decrease in natural gas use of 8.3% in 2013. Electricity generated from renewables increased by 6.6% between 2012 and 2013.

But another significant reason for the drop in emissions in 2013 was the East West interconnector which came online at the very end of 2012. Importing electricity from the UK is good for your emissions count because they are counted in UK, not Ireland. The new interconnector provided about 8% of our electricity in 2013, emissions free, and resulted in a complete gas power station lying idle for most of the year (Huntstown CCGT plant in Dublin).

Electricity consumption increased by just 0.2% during 2013 which is the equivalent of about 10,000 more homes to power. Despite this there was a reduction in emissions of 11%. A spin person might attribute all this to wind, but as you can see from the below there were four other very significant factors which resulted in less emissions and given wind increased by 13%, an overall saving of 11% is a poor enough showing. One can see the clear ineffectiveness of wind from these statistics :

Factor that reduced CO2 emissions for 2013	% Change
Reduction in Coal	-16%
Reduction in Peat	-9.5%
Reduction in Gas	-8%
Increase in Interconnection	+220%
Increase in Wind	+13%
Total reduction	-11%

Note: Biomass increased and hydro decreased by the same amount cancelling each other out

So what if we doubled our wind capacity ? Given the technical limits of wind on the system and the requirement for 5 large power stations to be running at all times to provide stability to the system, the most we can ever do is half our emissions in the electricity sector. This would give us a 10% drop overall - and this is a very generous figure, considering the larger turbines recently installed will require more maintenance than their older models and also the not insignificant back up plant inefficiencies that will result from large levels of wind penetration. Somewhere between 5-7% is probably a more accurate figure but let's allow 10% for now. This would reduce overall emissions by 10%. That leaves the remaining 80% to deal with.

Current Outlook : Ireland intends to carry on building more wind farms. Large scale biomass and nuclear have been ruled out as options by Government completely eradicating any chance of making meaningful reductions in emissions. Many new data centres are been planned around the country in the next few years which will significantly drive up demand for electricity and associated emissions.

Agriculture Sector

Agriculture is the largest "offender" at 32%. One solution is that we carve up half of agricultural land, dispose of the animals and plant it with trees. This then would cut down agri emissions to 16%. We could then convert some of the power stations to biomass and use some or all of the wood for electricity. This then would leave electricity emissions at about 5%. But, we would need some serious machinery to cut all these trees down and transport them and there would be an increase in imports of polluting oil, so this may well bring us back up to 20% for agriculture. But bear in mind that the current government are opposed to large scale biomass electricity generation.

Current Outlook: Ireland plans to increase its food exports and thereby increase its herd. There are no plans to change land use to forestry. Ireland's Prime Minister has asked for a free pass on agriculture emissions at the Paris climate summit citing the recession and lack of investment. 

Transport Sector

The transport sector makes up 19% of total emissions. There would need to be mandatory purchases of new electric vehicles with generous grants made available. Charging would need to be at night only and restrictions on charging made during spells of low wind. Otherwise, more dispatchable plant would be needed which would increase emissions in the electricity sector. One way out of this would be the above mentioned full conversion of large power stations to biomass.

Dublin Airport would need to restrict passengers to about 5 million, one quarter of current figures. This will push up prices and Ryanair would be a thing of the past. It would also drive up Ferry use negating some of the emission reductions.   Large supermarkets would have to reduce in size as there would need to be restrictions on large delivery vehicles. Having very few fuel stations would instantly take out most of the large fuel tankers on our roads, themselves consumers of oil.   Perhaps we can use some of that forested land to plant biofuels and further lower emissions. We could get down to 5% with some serious repercussions for modern society.


Current Outlook : Transport emissions have recently begun growing again. Sales of new cars are up and higher than EU average, as are sales of heavy goods vehicles. Traffic on Dublin's M50 motorway is growing at 10 times the European average.  More people have flown through Dublin Airport this year than ever before.

Residential Sector

Residential emissions are 11%. Mandatory passive housing could maybe get this down to 8%. Maybe more land could be used to grow fuel for biomass heaters with a combination of district heating intiatives getting it down to 5%.

Current Outlook : emissions are rising due to increased coal use, doesn't seem to be much focus by government on CHP or district heating initiatives.

Industry Sector

The same retrofitting schemes could be done for industry getting it down from 15% to 7%.

Current Outlook: emissions decreasing slightly, but with electricity costs predicted to match or exceed Denmark's in the years to come there might not be any industry left wiping out all of this sector's emissions. Most likely government would grant exemptions to industry at this stage from green levies, much like what has happened in Germany.

Waste Sector

Waste emissions will increase in the future when Poolbeg waste to energy plant opens so lets bring that up to 6% from 2.5%.

Current outlook: Poolbeg plant will open soon, not aware of any other similar plants in planning

Conclusion

These changes would bring emissions to 48% of current levels - from 57MT to 27MT. This is a very generous figure as there are all sorts of unintended consequences with the above changes e.g. how many people will buy diesel generators and go off grid altogether ?

The changes are startling to those used to modern comforts. There will no longer be a guarantee that when you plug something into the wall that you will get electricity out. That holiday you had once a year - that will have to go. 

It all hinges on agriculture and how we decide to use this land in the future. More trees means less CO2 in the atmosphere, reducing emissions further. Enda Kenny, Ireland's Prime Minister, has asked the COP21 leaders for a pass on Ireland's agriculture emissions thereby making the transition required to halt climate change all but impossible, unless we do without electricity, heating and modern vehicles altogether. Quite rightly, then, the greens are angry at Kenny's capitulation to the agriculture sector. Without changes in use for significant amounts of agriculture land, no serious dent in our emissions can be made. Significant reductions in the other sectors, as you can see from above, depend on land changes in the agri sector. 

So we have a government who tell us that climate change is a very big threat to us, but who have bet all their chips on wind turbines and other non dispatchable technologies. The most this can do is reduce our emissions by 10%, if even that, which will have negligible impact on the projected impacts of climate change. Let's remind ourselves once again what our energy minister's plan to combat climate change is :

I have no doubt that the development and advancement of onshore wind energy projects will be and must be a significant element of Ireland's energy policy and its approach to combating climate change in the years ahead - Minister for Energy, Alex White, December 2015.

So ask yourself the question, is our government really serious about combating climate change or are they just paying lip service to the new trendy ideology ? Why are they pushing wind energy as the number one solution when they must know it can only make a tiny dent in our emissions ? Is there something else driving this mad rush for wind farms ? Most likely, it makes them feel good that they are doing something, even though it is something akin to trying to hold back the Titanic with an elastic band.

Reality shows us that the economy is recovering, and we desire more than ever the comforts of modern living - fast cars, airplanes and Irish beef.

So if you really believe in climate change, then you should be worried, very worried.

Irish Times - is it Global Cooling or Global Warming ?

"Most discoveries are made regularly every 15 years'' - The Doctor's Dilemma, Play by George Bernard Shaw. 

The threats posed by rising temperatures worldwide are no longer seen as theoretical, but real and already evident in Africa, south east Asia, the Arctic and elsewhere - Irish Times, November 2015.

The world's cooling climate is reverting to conditions prevalent between 1600 and 1850 - Irish Times, May 1976 

By 1976, science had put 12 men on the moon and Richard Dawkins had just published, The Selfish Gene, an incredible analysis of genetics and the role of evolution in it.  The reason I state this is to show that science was at an advanced stage at this time. So the fact that there was consensus that the world was cooling at the time should carry alot of weight. However, the cooling at the time was mistaken for a long term trend when in fact the world slowly began to warm not long after the publication of "Global Cooling" articles such as the below in 1975 and 1976.

We can see the cycle of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) below and how concern about global cooling or warming have occurred in the period with the respective temperature variances  : 





The overall temperature trend in the past few hundred years, however, has been one of warming :






The above graph was produced from 14 separate global temperature proxies (sediments, boreholes, pollen, oxygen-18, stalagmites, magnesium to calcium ratios, algae, cave formation, etc. over a wide geographical range) and shows a warming trend starting around 1700, with warming  and cooling periods about the trend.  It is a remarkably accurate graph considering it was not produced from direct temperature readings. We can see that in the 5th century, the climate was getting warmer. This explains how Irish monks could live on Skellig Island off the coast of Kerry until circa 12th century, when temperatures were similar to what we have today. 



It also explains how St.Brendan made his voyage around the Atlantic about the same time and that Tim Severn's re-creation in the 1970s was indeed made under colder conditions. It explains the Vikings invasions of Greenland and Iceland. The pre-1700 Little Ice Age is also there.

So the climate began warming up circa 1700, long before man made carbon emissions and it's just aswell it did as nobody would have liked to have lived through another ice age. Going back to Dawkins, we know that humans evolved to adapt over short term climatic conditions and we are therefore blind to the overall trend lasting over hundreds and thousands of years.

The articles below, from the Irish Times in the mid-70s, shows we should not be confident about predicting the future climate. Of course, controlling pollution (a separate issue) is something which we do need to do something about. But our government seems to think (aswell as most of the political class) that building more industrial wind turbines will somehow sort out the main polluting sectors in Ireland - that of transport, heating and agriculture.